Learning from Vietnam’s Exemplary Progress in Advance Warning and Response

In Vietnam, climate-related hazards—including heat waves, typhoons, floods, droughts, and landslides—contribute to the incidence of multiple infectious diseases, especially dengue fever. Over the past decade, Vietnam has created a nationwide advance warning and response (AW&R) system using indicator-based surveillance, event-based surveillance, and, in Ho Chi Minh City, geographic information systems for mapping hot spots. At the same time, with three dengue forecasting models at different stages of development, Vietnam has also emerged as a testbed for digital early warning tools, generating real-world evidence that can strengthen AW&R capacity and improve AW&R tool development in Vietnam and other countries.

The Advance Warning and Response Exemplars (AWARE) research in Vietnam highlights several key lessons about building and operating effective AW&R systems, as well as lessons learned during new tool development. These lessons include the following:

• Generate usable forecasts, not just sophisticated models. Digital early warning tools must produce outputs that are relevant to decision makers—including forecasts with sufficient lead time for targeted vector control and community outreach, and at spatial resolutions that align with how public health systems operate.

• Balance central coordination and local flexibility. Strong national leadership and standardized guidance create conditions for success, but local capacity, staffing, and resources determine whether early warnings translate into concrete responses.

• AW&R development should be iterative. Vietnam’s experience reflects experimentation, adaptation, and learning across multiple systems. Tools have evolved in response to user feedback, operational constraints, and changing risk patterns.