Context

Geography, climate, and demographics

With approximately 42 million people, Uganda is the eighth most populous country in Africa, and its population is growing rapidly.¹ It is the youngest country on the continent and indeed in the world, as more than half of the population is under the age of 18. Although many young people are moving to cities for opportunity—between 2002 and 2014, the proportion of the population living in urban areas increased from 15 percent to 23 percent—Uganda remains one of the most rural countries on the African continent.

Uganda is home to 10 major ethnic groups and is divided into four regions—Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western—each with roughly equal populations.¹ Central Uganda, which is home to the capital city of Kampala and has a population of 3 million people, is the only region with an urban majority. Eastern Uganda, meanwhile, is the fastest urbanizing region. Western Uganda is sometimes called the “food basket” of the country, although its stunting rates are very high. Northern Uganda was the site of the civil war between the government and the Lord’s Resistance Army from 1986 to 2006 and is still coping with the aftermath of that crisis. Northern Uganda also hosts a large refugee population, with many refugees from South Sudan. Overall, Uganda has the second largest population of refugees of any country in the world.

Given Uganda’s relatively fertile soil and regular rainfall, farming is the lifeblood of the economy, and more than 70 percent of the workforce is employed in agriculture, most on small farms. However, both droughts and floods have become more common in recent years as climate change has set in. In our qualitative research, respondents spoke repeatedly of their anxiety about the future of agriculture.

History and politics

Uganda gained independence from the United Kingdom in 1962, but the next 25 years were characterized by political instability and violence.¹ The first president, Milton Obote, was overthrown in 1971 by Idi Amin, who was in turn overthrown and replaced by Obote in 1979. Obote was again overthrown in 1986 by Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, who led the National Resistance Movement and still serves as Uganda’s president. During Amin’s notorious rule, as many as 300,000 people were killed by the army, and the Asian community was expelled from the country.

Museveni brought a modicum of stability to the country, and Museveni’s government laid the foundation for much of the progress described in this report starting in the 1990s, including landmark anti-poverty, education, health, and water strategies. During his long tenure in office, Museveni has been accused of authoritarian tactics to maintain power and limit opposition, but he has been reelected six times, most recently in 2021.

Although relative peace returned to most of Uganda after 1986, the Lord’s Resistance Army, led by Joseph Kony, waged war against the government for the next 20 years. This civil war especially affected the Northern region, where children were abducted to serve as child soldiers, many civilians were killed, and more than 1.5 million people were internally displaced. The Lord’s Resistance Army was driven out in 2006, and Northern Uganda is in the process of rebuilding. Large-scale violence is no longer a feature of life in Uganda, but pockets of unrest—often fueled by ethnic tensions—continue to emerge.